An Economic Recovery for IT? Wait 'Til Next Year

There's a awful lot of confusing debate about just how the economy will play out this year, and I don't believe the economic pundits are going to be any better predicting economic developments in 2009 than they were in 2008. Even so, there's a surprising amount of optimism in the channel.

For one thing, just today research firm Computer Economics that IT spending is going to stay flat in 2009 but will recover in 2010 and businesss renew their investment spending cycle. "Over the past two decades, the negative impact of recessions on IT spending has never lasted more than two years," noted Frank Scavo, president of Computer Economics. "If the pattern of recovery holds true today, we should see a modest increase in IT equipment and software investment in 2010."

That makes sense. So does the notion that even in 2009, companies will continue to make investments in technology (including managed services, SaaS and virtualization) that promise a quick return-on-investment. These trends will help the channel weather the downturn.

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